Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
